Big problems are upon us!
The World Weather Organization in Geneva reports that surface warming of plus 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is expected to be exceeded as early as 2026. Although this immediately puts the result into perspective again by suggesting that the value could again be below, in the following years, but I don't believe in that. I am referring to each country's individual social and environmental reports and the IPCC's new 2021 environmental report. The data it contains suggests a different view. The 1.5°C limit is actually expected to be reached in 2025 and exceeded in 2026. After that the temperature will continue to rise. The direct connection with our economy is shown in the graphs below.
A summary graphic might make the drama more visible. Exactly because capital through interest and/or yield exponentially grows, has to be produced more and more, which then makes the earth's surface warmer and warmer. And because there is hardly any product with real 0% emissions and, to be honest, never will, we have to reckon with the exponential melting of all ice surfaces and thus a rise in sea level of up to 11m by 2100.The previous assumption that the melting of the poles and glaciers would take 1000 years should be dismissed as wishful thinking. All previous projections were exceeded many times over. An exponential development also starts with the melt.
Climate conference in Dubai
News from COP 28,
was not really to be expected from the beginning, but what is now becoming apparent is not only business as usual, but instead expanding the completely impossible CO2 storage concept as a reason and justification for it. Nuclear power is also to be expanded by three times, what is expected to be paid for by citizens. The reason for this: Otherwise, climate neutrality would not be possible. Although these projects would initially have to be financed with tax money, once these nuclear power plants were up and running, electricity could be generated very cheaply. The extreme maintenance and repair costs, the gigantic storage costs of nuclear waste, as well as the relatively short running times with the subsequent dismantling costs are completely ignored. The new goal of becoming climate neutral by 2050 is a little ridiculous, not achievable even with nuclear power and, even if it were, far too late.
The temperature of 1.5° Celsius, which was once a climate target, was exceeded for the first time in 2023.
According to researchers, six out of nine planetary boundaries have already been exceeded.
For some time now, with climate neutrality alone we can not win any flower pot.
The new GCP Report
A new record value for CO2 emissions will also be set in 2023
The Global Carbon Project (GCP) published its annual carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric CO2 levels for 2023 in December.
Accordingly, CO2 emissions have increased again by 1.1 percent compared to 2022.
Increasing emissions are measured in China and India, while they only decreased very slightly in the USA and the EU. A slight decrease of just 0.4 percent was also noted in the rest of the world. Conclusion: Global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels such as petroleum, coal and natural gas continue to rise exponentially.
At the same time, deforestation and El Nino conditions contributed to land vegetation absorbing less CO2 this year.
Fires and wars also contributed to rising emissions.
At the same time, the oceans are absorbing less and less CO2.
Overall, global emissions are still increasing exponentially. The measures decided at the climate conference are not sufficient for the necessary climate protection. Even tripling the number of nuclear power plants, which would only be completed in ten years, cannot stop this trend.
Technologies for the subsequent removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (direct air capture and carbon storage) have so far only absorbed 0.01 billion tons of CO2. No solution can be expected from this side either.
The El Niņo effect, fires and the decline in the ability to store CO2 and the temperature of the world's oceans will probably lead to an even faster accumulation of greenhouse gases and increasing Surfacetemoeratures in the future.
The oceans will absorb around 10.8 billion tons CO2 this year and will once again act as a buffer for atmospheric CO2 levels, but the buffer effect is decreasing exponentially. Soils and vegetation on land also absorbed around 10.4 billion tonnes less CO2 this year than in previous years.
Land use changes and deforestation will release around 4.2 billion tons of CO2 in 2023.
In total, fossil emissions and land use changes add up to global CO2 emissions of 40.2 billion tons by 2023.
They say more effort is needed, but wherever you look you not only get no results, but only further deteriorations.